The market cycle of LED light bulb

- Dec 07, 2018 -

Jed Dorsheimer, a senior asset analyst from Canaccord Adams, discussed the cyclical aspects of the LED market. The first cycle began in the first years of this century, driven mainly by mobile handheld devices, led to illuminate the keyboard, and then as a backlight for the phone's color screen. The dramatic increase in LED manufacturing has resulted in overcapacity over a period of 2004-2005 years. However, during this cycle, the performance of LEDs and the decline in prices were promoted, which in turn ushered in the second cycle of LEDs, the LED backlight as a medium size notebook and a large-size TV. Based on the rapid growth of the (tablet) TV market, Dorsheimer says the LED industry will experience significant capacity shortfalls, with the LED chip gap reaching 700.1 trillion by 2012. A further hundreds of MOCVD capacity is required, and the sapphire substrate should be adequately supplied. Dorsheimer believes that in line with the development trend, the future will lead to 30% of LED overcapacity, the need  "one to two years of digestion cycle "; Production capacity will not grow much in 2014-2016.

History will repeat itself, and the decline in LED prices and improved performance will help the industry advance to the next cycle, but the driving factor is lighting.


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